Charlie Was Right
1965 · The Transformation

The Cigar Butt Debate

Cheap & mediocre vs. wonderful & fair

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Warren Buffett
The General Contractor
Buy statistically cheap assets — the 'cigar butt' strategy from Graham

If the price is low enough relative to liquidation value, you get one last puff of profit. Berkshire Hathaway itself was this kind of bet.

It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.

1989 Shareholder Letter (reflecting the lesson)
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Charlie Munger
The Architect
Abandon the cigar butts entirely — buy quality businesses with durable advantages

A great business is a compounding machine. You don't have to keep finding new cheap stocks. The returns compound on their own over decades.

Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices; instead, buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.

Attributed to Charlie's advice to Warren, circa 1965
Convergence Outcome

Charlie Was Right

Buffett adopted Charlie's framework wholesale. The See's Candy acquisition in 1972 was the first major proof of concept — paying 3x book for an intangible moat.

Framework Shift

From net-net/liquidation-value investing → quality compounders at fair prices

Key Investment

See's Candy Shops (1972) — paid $25M for a business earning $4M, an unprecedented premium for Buffett

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